Lucas' Locks: NFL Thanksgiving Picks
- Lucas Jay Ferreira
- Nov 23, 2023
- 3 min read
Last Week's Record: 6-7 ATS
Locks Last Week: 2-1
Last week wasn't hot week I was looking for. A lot of close games coming down to the wire. Many games within a point or even a half point. Some break your way. Some don't. It happens. Doesn't make it any less frustrating though. Denver, Kansas City, and the Chargers are all games that were frustrating swings. Hell, if KC takes care of business wih the lead, my locks are perfect and I'm above .500. Now isn't the time to dwell though. It's time to be thankful. Thankful for the opportunity to eat turkey, watch football, and of course hit some bets! NFL Thanksgiving Picks coming at ya!
Lions (-8.5) vs Packers
A historic Thanksgiving Day NFC North matchup. The script has been flipped for these squads. The Lions are now the dominant team while the Packers swim in the pool of mediocrity.
Both teams came from behind a week ago. The Packers to win outright. The Lions to win but not cover. Winning ugly is the sign of a team being apart of upper echelon of the league. The Lions did that. They didn't fall for the trap. The Packers are coming off an emotional victory at home. They now hit the road for this historic matchup. The Packers are 105-76-7 all-time against the Lions. The last Lions' win came in September of 2021. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff keep the exciting season alive! Lions win and cover! Take the anytime Montgomery, Gibbs TDs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown yards!
Commanders (+13.5) @ Cowboys
The Commanders lost to the Giants for the 2nd time this year. Tommy DeVito and the fellas found a way. It was an ugly performance for the Commanders. Giants DB Deonte Banks was letting loose on IG Live. 2 out of the 3 Giants' victories have come against the Commanders. Talking trash considering both teams are just flat out not good sums up both these teams' seasons.
The Cowboys avoided the trap against the Panthers. The Boys have been shocked once this year by the Cardinals, but other than that they have taken care of business as favorites. I expect a victory, but 13.5 is A LOT of points.
This one has ugly written all over it. I see the Commanders covering in a sloppy short week effort. Sam Howell will outplay Dak. It will not be enough though. Good chance you see Ron Rivera, a casualty of Black Monday after this one.
Seahawks (+7.0) vs 49ers
The question is whether Geno Smith plays or not. There were whispers he'd be back on the field for the final drive against the Rams. It was Lock instead and as many would expect he didn't come through for Seattle. It hasn't been a strong recent stretch for the Seahawks. They're still en route to the playoffs, but they didn't completely capitalize on an injured 49ers team.
The 49ers are back healthy and rolling. I'd expect this one to be close, but the 49ers ultimately come out on top. The 49ers, as mentioned in recent posts, are very good in the games following the bye historically. (38-16 under Shanahan) Seahawks cover in what should be the most entertaining Thanksgiving game! (Disclaimer: If Geno Smith is INACTIVE I suggest taking the 49ers to COVER)
Black Friday: Dolphins (-9.5) @ Jets
The Dolphins still have the fraud alert sounding. They haven't beat winning teams in the McDaniel era. The Jets are certainly not that. They do have a defense that can cause problems though. Is it a defense good enough to cover the spread with Tim Boyle? I don't think so. The Dolphins had their struggles against an Antonio Pierce led Raiders team. They still pulled off an ugly win which I think shows growth. The question lies in whether the Jets' defense can sustain success while being leaned upon so heavily more and more. Wilson wasn't the answer at QB. Boyle won't be either. They continue to roll out an O-line that has seen 13 new faces throughout the year. (28th in Pass Block Win Rate, 24th in Run Block Win Rate) The Dolphins defense is coming together. (8th in Pass Rush Win Rate at 49%) Expect Mike McDaniel to take this matchup vs Saleh. A battle of Shanahan tree guys.
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